Results of so-called EU stress tests, which will assess how banks would fare if economic conditions worsened and sovereign debt holdings declined in value, are due on 91 banks on July 23 2010 at 6pm[11pm IST].
Many servisors, bankers, ministers, analysts and sources have commented in recent weeks on what they expect the stress tests to show for banks in the sample. Below is a collection of those comments, sorted by country.
FRANCE - PASS EXPECTED
BANKS PARTICIPATING: BNP Paribas ; Societe Generale ; Credit Agricole ; BPCE, parent of Natixis
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Bank of France head Christian Noyer said there was "no reason" to believe French banks would fail Europe-wide stress tests as they were regularly tested by the regulator. (Europlace business forum, July 6).
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Most expect all banks to pass. Some brokers using a harsher stress test than CEBS have cast doubt on Credit Agricole's capital strength.
GERMANY - 1 FAIL, 13 PASSES EXPECTED
BANKS PARTICIPATING: Deutsche Bank; Commerzbank; Hypo Real Estate HRXGe.DE; Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg; Bayerische Landesbank BAYLB.UL; DZ Bank; Norddeutsche Landesbank; Deutsche Postbank ; WestLB WDLG.UL; HSH Nordbank HSH.UL; Landesbank Hessen-Thueringen; Landesbank Berlin ; Dekabank Deutsche Girozentrale; WGZ Bank
COMMENTS: With the exception of nationalised Hypo Real Estate no German bank in the test is expected to fall below the minimum capital threshold required to pass the exercise.
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Apart from Hypo Real Estate, some analysts using different stress test assumptions have said Commerzbank would need more capital in their scenario.
GREECE - PASS EXPECTED
BANKS PARTICIPATING: National Bank of Greece ; EFG Eurobank ERGr.AT; Alpha Bank; Piraeus Bank ; Agricultural Bank of Greece ; TT Hellenic Postbank
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Greece's central bank chief, George Provopoulos, said he expected the country's lenders participating in the stress test to "smoothly pass" the exercise. (Newspaper interview, July 17)
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Citi analysts say NBG would need capital in their own stress test scenario.
IRELAND - 1 PASS, 1 CONDITIONAL PASS EXPECTED
BANKS PARTICIPATING: Bank of Ireland ; Allied Irish Banks
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Finance Minister Brian Lenihan and central bank Governor Patrick Honohan both said that the two Irish banks had already passed domestic stress tests that were tougher than the EU test.
ITALY - PASS EXPECTED
BANKS PARTICIPATING: Intesa Sanpaolo , UniCredit , Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, UBI Banca, Banco Popolare
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi said last week he was confident stress tests would show individual banks' capital is strong enough and that financial bases are sound.
PORTUGAL - 1-2 FAILS POSSIBLE
BANKS PARTICIPATING: Caixa Geral de Depositos, Millennium bcp , Banco Espirito Santo, Banco BPI .
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Treasury Secretary Carlos Pina said stress tests showed a solid, well-managed banking system without capital problems and tests results would reinforce investor confidence in Portugal.
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Millennium bcp and Banco BPI have failed stress tests by brokers including JPMorgan, Macquarie and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods using different assumptions than CEBS.
SPAIN - SOME CAJAS EXPECTED TO FAIL
BANKS PARTICIPATING: Banco Santander ; BBVA ; Banco Popular Espanol ; Banco de Sabadell ; Bankinter ; Banco Pastor ; Banca March; Banco Guipuzcoano; all unlisted savings banks or "cajas".
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Spanish Economy Minister Elena Salgado has said the tests will show that every Spanish bank is solvent. The Spanish Confederation of Savings Banks (CECA) said he did not expect nasty surprises, but did not rule out some may have to seek more capital from the Bank of Spain's restructuring fund.
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Analysts expect no problems at the big listed banks. They expect capital shortfalls at some cajas to be covered by the Bank of Spain's restructuring fund in a process that started before the stress tests were announced.
AUSTRIA - PASS EXPECTED
BANKS PARTICIPATING: Erste Group Bank; Raiffeisen Zentralbank.
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Austrian central bank Governor Ewald Nowotny said the Austrian banks' results would be "in a normal range" and that he did not expect the test to show any capital requirements. (Radio interview, July 13)
BELGIUM - PASS EXPECTED
BANKS PARTICIPATING: Dexia , KBC
COMMENTS: Both have passed the tests, according to business dailies De Tijd and L'Echo (July 17)
WHAT ANALYSTS SAY: Citi analysts say Dexia screens poorly in its own stress test scenario, while KBC would need to raise capital by 2012.
CYPRUS - NO INDICATION
BANKS PARTICIPATING: Bank of Cyprus BOC.CY, Marfin Popular Bank CPBC.CY.
DENMARK - NO INDICATION
BANKS PARTICIPATING: Danske Bank; Jyske Bank; Sydbank .
FINLAND - NO INDICATION
BANK PARTICIPATING: Pohjola Group
HUNGARY - NO INDICATION
BANKS PARTICIPATING: OTP OTPB.BU; FHB Mortgage Bank FHBK.BU
LUXEMBOURG - NO INDICATION
BANKS PARTICIPATING: Banque et Caisse d'Epargne de l'Etat (BCEE), Banque Raiffeisen
MALTA - NO INDICATION
BANK PARTICIPATING: Bank of Valetta
NETHERLANDS - PASS EXPECTED
BANKS PARTICIPATING: ING , SNS Bank , Rabobank RABO.UL, ABN AMRO/Fortis ABNNV.UL FORTH.UL.
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Dutch Finance Minister de Jager said he was confident about the outcome the stress tests and a test last year showed no banks needed money, except for ABN/Fortis, which later received capital.
POLAND - PASS EXPECTED
BANKS PARTICIPATING: PKO BP PKOB.WA. Other major Polish banks are all owned by other European banks.
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: Polish central bank governor Marek Belka said, "I haven't got the slightest concerns about the result of PKO BP's (test)."
SLOVENIA - PASS EXPECTED
BANKS PARTICIPANTS: Nova Ljubljanska Banka (NLB)
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: While Finance Minister France Krizanic said NLB -- of which the state is the biggest shareholder -- will pass, NLB on Wednesday surprisingly announced plans to raise 400 million euros in equity this year, the first bank to announce a share issue in the run-up to the publication of the stress tests.
SWEDEN - PASS EXPECTED
BANKS PARTICIPATING: Nordea, Handelsbanken , SEB and Swedbank.
OFFICIAL COMMENTS: The chief economist at Sweden's financial watchdog has said that the country's top four banks will come out looking good in the EU stress tests.
UNITED KINGDOM - PASS EXPECTED
BANKS: HSBC Holdings,Barclays,Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group
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