India remains least favoured equity markets for Asia-Pacific investors

MUMBAI: India remains among the least favoured equity markets for Asia-Pacific investors, said a Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey of global fund managers in June.

In contrast, China, which is often mentioned in the same breath as India in terms of economic growth, is the second-most preferred markets for fund managers in this region, the survey said.

The investment bank's survey did not say why India is among the least fancied among Asia Pacific markets or why China is preferred over India. Citigroup prefers the China over India because of Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) indecisiveness in raising rates quickly to rein in inflation, while it says the communist nation is moving faster to control prices.

"Inflation, which is an issue everywhere in the region, is more of an issue in India because RBI is a little more reluctant than other central banks to tighten. So, investors are saying if RBI does not tighten to bring inflation under control, then the desire for a soft landing remains a desire, but the reality is a hard landing." said Markus Rosgen, managing director and head of regional strategy, Citigroup, in a recent interview.

India's central bank is under pressure to raise policy rates on Thursday for the tenth time since March 2010 after wholesale price inflation in May was above forecasts at 9.06%. The People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, on Tuesday unexpectedly tightened monetary policy, increasing bank reserve requirements for the sixth time this year, after the country's consumer price inflation rose to a 34-month high. "This year, China will do better than India", said Rosgen. "Last year was terrible for the Chinese stock markets and people have become a little too bearish there. So, expectations from China are low."

India's benchmark Sensex rose 17% in 2010 compared with Shanghai Composite's 14% fall in the same period. Investors, focusing on emerging markets, are less pessimistic about India compared to their Asia- Pacific counterparts, said the Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey. India recorded its lowest underweight rating in over six months, it said. "To see sustained outperformance in EM (emerging markets), we'd likely need to see Asian inflation peak and/or an improvement in China data momentum," it said.

Two-thirds of the fund managers, who participated in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey, said they do not expect the US Federal Reserve to announce another round of its massive bond buyback, known as Quantitative Easing (QE). The second dose of QE2 will end later this month.

"Growth and profit expectations stabilised after recent sharp falls. Inflation expectations fell to 38% from 69% two months ago. But the macro backdrop is not seen as weak enough to warrant more stimulus: three out of four panelists think a recession unlikely and only 13% expect a new round of QE in H2," the survey said.
source-http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/analysis/india-remains-least-favoured-equity-markets-for-asia-pacific-investors/articleshow/8856777.cms

steven
management trainee-fundamental analysis
DENIP consultants Pvt Ltd