Thursday's well-marked low-pressure area weakened to a conventional ‘low' by the same night, merging with the seasonal land-based monsoon trough across northwest-to-southeast India by Friday afternoon.
This has considerably reduced the intensity of rainfall over northwest Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan and southwest Uttar Pradesh.
A remnant upper air circulation still hung in the area forming part of the larger land-based trough and India Meteorological Department (IMD) with hardly any significant rain being generated in the bargain.
Isolated thunder squalls have been warned over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh on Saturday. With this, the sustained wet session over central India has been brought to a logical conclusion. The activity will now shift to east India as also along the west coast where an offshore has been thrown up afresh on Friday.
But there is no big purchase to be had from this trough, and the rains are likely to be confined to just under its footprint.
On the other hand, northwesterlies are expected to take occupy large parts of northwest and adjoining central India.
A westerly trough would dip low to central India, within the confines of which monsoon easterlies from the Bay of Bengal could set up some ‘interactive rain.'The rain foot print would extend from Gangetic West Bengal to northwest across Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Some of the rains could propagate to east-central India (Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha) as well.
But these may not be enough to make up for moderate to large deficits in north peninsular India left out by the monsoon thanks to the Bay of Bengal arm going astray and getting delayed in this region.
Meanwhile, the IMD said in an update on Friday that the monsoon has advanced further into some more parts of Arabian Sea, Gujarat, east Rajasthan and Uttarakhand, most parts of Himachal Pradesh and entire Jammu and Kashmir.
The northern limit passed through Porbandar, Ahmadabad, Udaipur, Ajmer, Jaipur, Dholpur, Shahjahanpur, Dehradun, Shimla and Jammu.
source-businessline
steven
management trainee-fundamental analysis
DENIP consultants Pvt Ltd
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