Will Maruti be everyones Diwali Gift for 2012-13?

Dear All,

It looks like Maruti is on the verge of a multi year trend break. As per the chart below Maruti is testing the 2009-10 trendline.

Keep an eye on this stock which is currently trading around 1450 levels for a break above 1500 and with the following targets:

3 months - 1600
6-9 months - 1710
12 - 15months - 1800

Once this stock crosses the 1650 levels there will be several new highs this stock could potentially create.

Technical traders will notice a possible cup and saucer(2011-12) or head and shoulder (mid 2009 - 2012) or a symmetric triangle (2009 start to 2012) pattern possibly being broken out.

Do keep an eye on this stock for a potential multi-bagger opportunity.

Thanks,
Dewang  K. Mehta
DENIP Consultants Pvt.  Ltd.

Disclaimer Post applies

BAD Equity SIP Returns VS FD Returns

Dear All,

This is an interesting read by ET Wealth. I think during such troubled times they're trying to educate investors to stick with their SIP's instead of stopping them and to have faith in the Equity Markets over the long term. 

I totally support this process and believe that investors should show a little more faith in the time frame and the performance of the fund manager. Although the short term / near term for the Equity Market looks to be terrible, over the long run your Systematic Investments will work out just fine. 

A 27% return CAGR over 10 years is pretty impressive where clearly Rs. 1.2lakh was returned as Rs. 12.79lakh. 

Our view at DENIP is that we anticipate at least a 10% - 15% fall in the indices (BSE Sensex & NSE Nifty) over the next 1 quarter. We believe that all long term investors should look to add a Gold SIP to their Equity SIP portfolio as a hedge to the oncoming fall since in the worst case inflation linked returns around 6% will  persists and during such turbulent times (2008 crisis, 2011 EU crisis) higher returns to the tune of 20%+  can be expected. Following is an email we had sent to a client on the 31^st of October 2011 who had started investing recently:

Scheme Name	Folio No.	Amount Invested	Current Value	No. of Units	Current NAV	Profit / Loss	P/L %
HDFC Top 200 Fund	7228258/61	15,000.00	14,099.14	73.953	190.650	(900.86)	-6%
Reliance Regular Savings Fund	404120184465	5,000.00	4,744.64	171.952	27.593	(255.36)	-5%
DSP Black Rock Top 100 Equity Fund	2496587/94	10,000.00	9,298.50	102.142	91.035	(701.50)	-7%
Kotak Gold Fund Growth	1913261/95	10,000.00	12,415.69	959.859	12.935	2,415.69	24%
	Total	40,000.00	40,557.97			557.97	1%

The whole portfolio was saved only because of investments in a Gold fund. If you work on proper asset allocation, the return game changes completely.

Do get in touch with us if you're interested. You can call us on (022)40156688/99 or 9320496699/9320196699.

Thanks,

Dewang K. Mehta

DENIP Consultants Pvt. Ltd. 

Godrej Industries - 6Month Buy - Dewang K Mehta

Dear All,

In our previous post on Godrej Industries (http://denipconsultants.blogspot.com/2011/07/godrej-industries-6month-buy-dewang-k.html), we asked fellow investors to book out profits in Godrej industries on the 7^th of July 2011 around 222 levels. We advise you’ll to re-enter this stock below 207 levels for a test of 231 levels again. We also believe that the target of 250 is still intact.

If we are to consider yesterday’s close of 211, we have saved at least 11Rs or close to 5% in this month alone. I would ideally want to buy it around the 205 levels but I am not too sure if it will fall to those levels. Below 210 is a good entry for this stock but patience is a must.

Thanks,

Dewang K Mehta

DENIP Consultants 

Disclaimer Post Applies

S&P CNX Nifty - Still Bearish - Dewang K Mehta

Dear All,

This week the S&P CNX Nifty closed at 5482 which according to the charts is a very crucial level for it. A close below 5480 will definitely see us testing the 5200ish zone on the Nifty which takes it lower by at least another 3%.

What we have done is to go back to the basics of technical analysis which talks about supports and resistances. We have highlighted the resistances in red color from where the Nifty has fallen every time and the supports in black which are the zones where Nifty witnesses buying and bounces back.

So according to our reading of the charts we are very crucially poised and if you play by the book then it’s prudent to buy the Nifty at 5480+ levels and keep a stop loss of 5446 both being spot figures. However for traders who love going short we would advocate a weekly close below 5450 to go ahead and short the Nifty.

We began July with the Nifty at 5700+ when we had emailed and blogged about being cautiously bearish and we still continue to hold a bearish view on the market. However we are not ruling out a ultra quick up move to 5650 if buying does come in.

Our previous posts on the Nifty:

1. April 2011 - http://denipconsultants.blogspot.com/2011/04/nifty-view-denip-consultants-dewang-k.html
2. June 2011 - http://denipconsultants.blogspot.com/2011/06/nifty-view-denip-consultants-dewang-k.html
3. July 2011 - http://denipconsultants.blogspot.com/2011/07/s-cnx-nifty-cautiously-bearish-dewang-k.html

Clearly the above posts show how we have been bearish on the Nifty since 5900 and continue to maintain our view.

Thanks,

Dewang K Mehta

DENIP Consultants

Disclaimer Post Applies

Nifty View - DENIP Consultants - July View - Dewang K Mehta

Dear All,

In continuation with our view on the Nifty where we did mention a possibility of a break out and we do seem to be in place now with the S&P CNX Nifty closing at 5728 levels. We believe that we should see at least 2 – 3 sessions in the green on the Nifty before we witness a pullback.

For now we should face resistance on the Nifty at the 5740 /5750 level and a close above that should take us to 5800 levels. However we do not rule out a pull back from the 5740 / 50 levels which could happen as early as Friday.

Please click on the image for an enlarged view.

Thanks,

Dewang K Mehta

DENIP Consultants Pvt. Ltd.

Disclaimer Post Applies

Nifty View- July 2011 - DENIP Consultants - Dewang K Mehta

Dear All,

Attached herewith are 2 S&P CNX Nifty charts. If you look at the charts then you will clearly see that the Nifty is facing stiff resistance at the 5720 – 5745 mark due to the resistance line (denoted in red) which has been pretty effective since November 2010.

Our understanding is that although it might be a good level to sell the Nifty, this time around the scenario might just be a bit different. If you look at the numbers then the FII have been buying heavily in our markets and the fall on Friday could be nothing more than profit booking. Monday might turn out to be a more decisive day than ever considering that we already have one close in the red. If we do close in the red on Monday with decent volumes then we might actually witness the Nifty fall back to 5555 levels where it should find some decent buying.

However a close below the 5555 level could essentially see the nifty fall back in the 5400+ region. We advise traders to keep strict stop losses on their long positions and could buy some puts to hedge their long positions. A 100 point fall on the Nifty from the current 5627 level could earn decent money on Puts.

The scenario does change if we do mange to close above the 5730/40 mark. We could have an upside that potentially extends till 6000 levels. If I look at the historical trend in July then the trend has been on the upside with the Nifty gaining a minimum of 100 points in the past 2 years or so. If I was to look at the indicators then all of them suggest that we are overbought but more often than not during a break out these indicators tend to be in the overbought zone.

This time it will be very interesting to see whether we break out or continue the downtrend considering that the FIIs have been buying heavily and the DIIs have been selling. Let’s see who wins this battle but for now trade safe and be light on your portfolio positions.

Thanks,

Dewang K Mehta

DENIP Consultants 

Disclaimer Post Applies

NSE Website to be Updated Soon

Dear All,

We will shortly see an updated NSE website which is much better according to us. Following is a screen shot which will give you an idea:

Do let us know your views.

Thanks,
Dewang K Mehta
DENIP Consultants Pvt. Ltd.