The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression in the decade preceding World War II. The timing of the Great Depression varied across nations, but in most countries it started in about 1929 and lasted until the late 1930s or early 1940s. It was the longest, most widespread, and deepest depression of the 20th century. In the 21st century, the Great Depression is commonly used as an example of how far the world's economy can decline. The depression originated in the U.S., starting with the fall in stock prices that began around September 4, 1929 and became worldwide news with the stock market crash of October 29, 1929 (known as Black Tuesday). From there, it quickly spread to almost every country in the world.
The Stock Market Crash in the US however was just the beginning. Since many banks had also invested large portions of their clients' savings in the stock market, these banks were forced to close when the stock market crashed. Seeing a few banks close caused another panic across the country. Afraid they would lose their own savings, people rushed to banks that were still open to withdraw their money. This massive withdrawal of cash caused additional banks to close. Since there was no way for a bank's clients to recover any of their savings once the bank had closed, those who didn't reach the bank in time also became bankrupt.
Businesses and industry were also affected. Having lost much of their own capital in either the Stock Market Crash or the bank closures, many businesses started cutting back their workers' hours or wages. In turn, consumers began to curb their spending, refraining from purchasing such things as luxury goods. This lack of consumer spending caused additional businesses to cut back wages or, more drastically, to lay off some of their workers. Some businesses couldn't stay open even with these cuts and soon closed their doors, leaving all their workers unemployed.
The Great Depression had devastating effects in virtually every country, rich and poor. Personal income, tax revenue, profits and prices dropped, while international trade plunged by more than 50%. Unemployment in the U.S. rose to 25% and in some countries rose as high as 33%. Cities all around the world were hit hard, especially those dependent on heavy industry. Construction was virtually halted in many countries. Farming and rural areas suffered as crop prices fell by approximately 60%. Facing plummeting demand with few alternate sources of jobs, areas dependent on primary sector industries such as cash cropping, mining and logging suffered the most. Some economies started to recover by the mid-1930s. However, in many countries the negative effects of the Great Depression lasted until the start of World War II.
The Great Depression of 1929 had a very severe impact on India, which was then under the rule of the British Raj. The Government of British India adopted a protective trade policy which, though beneficial to the United Kingdom, caused great damage to the Indian economy. During the period 1929–1937, exports and imports fell drastically crippling seaborne international trade. The railways and the agricultural sector were the most affected.
The international financial crisis combined with detrimental policies adopted by the Government of India resulted in the soaring prices of commodities. High prices along with the stringent taxes prevalent in British India had a dreadful impact on the common man. The discontent of farmers manifested itself in rebellions and riots. The Salt Satyagraha of 1930 was one of the measures undertaken as a response to heavy taxation during the Great Depression.
The Great Depression and the economic policies of the Government of British India worsened the already deteriorating Indo-British relations. When the first general elections were held according to the Government of India Act 1935, anti-British feelings resulted in the Indian National Congress winning in most provinces with a very high percentage of the vote share.
The Concept of Gold Standard
The gold standard is a monetary system in which the standard economic unit of account is a fixed mass of gold. There are distinct kinds of gold standard. First, the gold specie standard is a system in which the monetary unit is associated with circulating gold coins, or with the unit of value defined in terms of one particular circulating gold coin in conjunction with subsidiary coinage made from a lesser valuable metal.
Similarly, the gold exchange standard typically involves the circulation of only coins made of silver or other metals, but where the authorities guarantee a fixed exchange rate with another country that is on the gold standard. This creates a de facto gold standard, in that the value of the silver coins has a fixed external value in terms of gold that is independent of the inherent silver value. Finally, the gold bullion standard is a system in which gold coins do not circulate, but in which the authorities have agreed to sell gold bullion on demand at a fixed price in exchange for the circulating currency.
At the onset of the First World War, the cost of gold was very low and therefore the pound sterling had high value. But during the First World War, the value of the pound fell alarmingly due to rising war expenses. At the conclusion of the war, the value of the pound was only a fraction of what it used to be prior to the commencement of the war. It remained low until 1925, when the then Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister) of United Kingdom, Winston Churchill, restored it to pre-War levels. As a result, the price of gold fell rapidly. While the rest of Europe purchased large quantities of gold from the United Kingdom, there was little increase in the financial reserves. This dealt a blow to an already deteriorating economy. The United Kingdom began to look to its possessions as India to compensate for the gold that was sold.
What Did Smart Money Do In the 1929 Crash and Aftermath?
During the same bear market period smart-money moved from the plunging equity markets (i.e. financial assets) to hard asset investments, like Homestake Mining - which is used heretofore as a surrogate for all gold stocks.
The stock price of this gold mining company soared relentlessly upward during the entire bear market. Homestake Mining stock rose continuously from $80 in October 1929 to $495 per share in December 1935 - which represents a total return of 519% (excluding cash dividends) during the devastating bear market period.
Contemplate and appreciate the monumental difference in investment returns during a serious bear market. Smart-money invested $10,000 in Homestake Mining (hard assets) in late 1929 - which increased in value to almost $62,000 by December 1935. This represents a compound rate of return of 35% per year in appreciation alone!
It is meaningful to note that in late 1929 the value of Homestake Mining was about $80 per share. Moreover, during the next six years Homestake Mining paid out a total of $128 in cash dividends. In fact the 1935 dividend alone reached $56 per share. That's almost a 70% dividend yield payout (basis 1929) in only one year! Indeed, hard asset investments (gold mining shares) were islands of economic refuge during the grueling years of the Great Depression.
Unfortunately, those innocent souls who remained invested in stocks - and had a buy and hold strategy - saw their initial $10,000 investment slowly dwindle to only $3,600 by late 1935. This represented a devastating capital loss of almost two-thirds of their investment savings. The hapless naive investor with a buy and hold strategy in financial assets lost the greater part of his original stake. Pathetically, he could ill-afford to risk - let alone lose - his precious capital during the many long despairing years of the Great Depression.
One does not have to be a Ph.D. in higher mathematics to understand the 1929-1935 comparative investment results stated below.
Investment
Vehicle | Investment
Date | Amount | Investment
Value @ Dec. 1935 |
DJIA | Oct - 1929 | $10,000 | $3,600 |
DJUA | Oct - 1929 | $10,000 | $2,100 |
Homestake Mining | Oct - 1929 | $10,000 | $62,000 |
Note: For simplification cash dividends not taken into account |
What should an Ideal MF Portfolio look like over the next 2 years?
MF Scheme Name | Scheme Type | Investment Logic | Minimum Amount | % Allocation |
DSP BR Top 100 Equity Reg – SIP (Growth) | Large Cap Fund | Safe bet in the Indian equities because of investments in blue chip companies | 500 /- | 10% |
HDFC Top 200 Fund - SIP(Growth) | Large Cap Fund | Safe bet in the Indian equities because of investments in blue chip companies | 1,000 /- | 20% |
HDFC Prudence Fund – SIP | Balanced Fund | Balances the portfolio due to debt and large cap equity exposure | 1,000 /- | 20% |
Birla Sunlife Dividend Yield Plus – SIP | Mid, Small & Micro Cap Fund | Risky bet but decent opportunity to accumulate midcap/small cap stocks at lower levels | 1,000 /- | 20% |
DSP World Gold Fund – SIP | Gold Miners fund | Hedge to direct gold investments since if the US equities stabilize and gold falls a bit from here these companies will still earn higher margins | 500 /- | 10% |
Kotak Gold Fund – SIP | Gold Fund | Direct gold investments as a total hedge to your equity investments | 1,000 /- | 20% |
Total | Rs. 5,000 /- | 100% |
Thanks,
Dewang K. Mehta
DENIP Consultants Pvt. Ltd.
Disclaimer Post Applies
