Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Important US Economic Data Releases for the Week 12th Sept 2011 to 16th Sept 2011

Important US Economic Data Releases for the Week 12th Sept 2011 to 16th Sept 2011

Tuesday
Import and Export Prices.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index.
Treasury Budget

Wednesday
Producer Price Index
Retail Sales
Business Inventories
EIA Petroleum Status

Thursday
Consumer Price Index
Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Jobless Claims
Current Account
IIP
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
EIA Natural Gas Report

Friday
Consumer Sentiment

Source: www.sharetipsinfo.com

Thanks,
Gaurav Agarwal
Head Dealer
DENIP Consultants Pvt Ltd

Fmp Details(As on 12th Sept 2011)


Fmp Details(As on 12th Sept 2011)


Thanks,
Gaurav Agarwal
Head Dealer
DENIP Consultants Pvt Ltd




Saturday, September 10, 2011

Dow Jones ends below 11K, down 304 pts on Europe woes

The US equity markets ended sharply lower on Friday on fears that German may default on its debt. Resignation of the top German official at the European Central Bank in protest of the bank's bond-buying program too added fuel to the fire.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 303.68 points or 2.69%, to close at 10,992.13. The NASDAQ Composite dropped 61.15 points or 2.42%, to end at 2,467.99. The Standard and Poor's 500 Index slipped 31.67 points or 2.67%, to settle at 1,154.23.

ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark will step down from his post by the end of the year, the bank said on Friday. Two sources told Reuters Stark's resignation, which comes almost three years before his term is due to expire, was because of a conflict over the central bank's controversial program of buying up sovereign bonds to help hold down borrowing costs in some debt-strapped euro zone members.

"The ECB is critical in dealing with and potentially solving the sovereign debt issue, so when you get a new story like this, that there's internal turmoil in the ECB, that immediately has implications for the bond-buying program, which immediately has implications on the capital level in European banks," said Jack de Gan, chief investment officer at Harbor Advisory Corp in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.

Terrorism threats against New York City and Washington just ahead of the 10th anniversary of the September 11 attacks also prompted investors to sell equities ahead of the weekend.

At a meeting of Group of Seven finance chiefs being held in France, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner on Friday pressed Europe's strongest economies to give "unequivocal" financial support to weaker euro zone states to overcome a debt crisis that threatens the world economy.

Investors remained skeptical about how much of President Barack Obama's USD 447 billion proposal to generate US jobs would make it through Congress. Obama on Thursday night challenged Congress to enact tax cuts and new spending to revive a stalled job market, but he faces an uphill fight to win over Republicans.

Among largecaps, McDonald's fell 4% to USD 85.03 and Bank of America tumbled 3% to USD 6.98.

Yahoo gained 0.28% to USD 14.48 and Texas Instruments slipped 1% to USD 26.08.

On the economic front, the Commerce Department said wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in July to a seasonally adjusted USD 462.41 billion. It gained 0.6% in June.

Among the European markets, Britain's FTSE fell 2.35%, Germany's DAX lost 4.04% and France's CAC dropped 3.60% at close.


Source: www.moneycontrol.com


Thanks,

Gaurav Agarwal

Head Dealer

DENIP Consultants Pvt Ltd

Friday, September 9, 2011

RBI Reference Rate for US $ and Euro

The Reserve Bank of India’s Reference Rate for the US dollar is `46.1775 and the Reference Rate for Euro is `64.9545 on September 8, 2011. The corresponding rates for the previous day (September 7, 2011) were `46.0218 and `64.7758 respectively. Based on the Reference Rate for the US dollar and middle rates of the cross-currency quotes, the exchange rates of GBP and JPY against the Rupee are given below:



Note : The SDR-Rupee rate will be based on the reference rate.

Source: www.moneycontrol.com

Thanks,
Gaurav Agarwal
Head Dealer
DENIP Consultants Pvt Ltd

Food inflation at 9.55% YoY on Aug 27: Govt

India's food price index rose 9.55% and the fuel price index climbed 12.55% in the year to August 27, government data on Thursday showed.

In the previous week, annual food and fuel inflation stood at 10.05% and 12.55% respectively.

The primary articles index was up 13.34%, compared with an annual rise of 12.93% a week earlier.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) remains bent on fighting domestic inflation, which stood at 9.22% in July, despite weakening global conditions, officials with direct knowledge of policymaking said on Wednesday, a week before it is widely expected to raise interest rates once again.

The RBI, which has lifted rates 11 times in 18 months, makes its mid-quarter review on September 16.

Source: www.moneycontrol.com

Thanks,
Gaurav Agarwal
Head Dealer
DENIP Consultants Pvt Ltd

SEBI can regulate unlisted firms if they raise public funds

The markets watchdog SEBI today told SAT that Section 55 A of the Companies Act gives it enough powers to regulate unlisted companies if such entities have raised funds from the public.

"Does SEBI have powers under Section 55A? My answer is yes. If OFCD is a security under the Securities Act, then it comes under the SEBI Act. And if it comes under the SEBI Act, then Sebi has jurisdiction. SEBI can (therefore) pass a special order to regulate unlisted companies," SEBI Counsel Arvind P Datar told the Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT).

Datar was contesting Sahara Group's claim that its OFCD (optionally fully convertible debentures) were not a public issue and therefore cannot be regulated by SEBI.

Sahara had been ordered by the SEBI to refund the money its two group companies had raised from the public through an OFCD issue; the company has challenged SEBI order at the SAT.

Datar further argued that Sahara companies OFCDs were issued to the public and that it was actually "a public offer dressed up as a private placement".

Pointing out that even the legal provisions which Sahara took recourse to were meant for a public issue, Datar said, Sahara has taken recourse to Section 60B of the Companies Act, a provision meant for a public issue.

Once it is a public issue then listing becomes mandatory under Section 73 (1) of the Companies Act.

Datar further said if an OFCD can indeed be defined as a Security, then under the SEBI Act, the SEBI has jurisdiction.

"They can only come under Section 55 A, Clause B. If one goes by a literal interpretation of this provision, then that would be very absurd, and the appellant may argue that this does not cover them," Datar said.

"We must understand why this provision was introduced in the first place. It was introduced, because Parliament wanted to give SEBI all powers," Datar said.

"Intention does not matter because under this provision, listing becomes mandatory. Merely because the appellant gives it the tag of a private issue does not make it one. After all, Section 73 (1) of the Companies Act makes it mandatory for the appellant (Sahara) to seek the approval of the stock exchange," he said.

"A literal interpretation of Section 55 A would defeat the intention of Parliament....Intention of a company is not a decision itself, but the three-fold test of conduct, circumstances of the case as well as terms of the contract,
is. If the company knew it would cross the limit of 50 investors, then it ought to have listed," the SEBI counsel said.

Broadly concurring, SAT's presiding officer NK Sodhi observed that "if it is a public issue, they should have gone to the stock exchange, and so Section 73 (2) of the Companies Act follows. The necessary consequence is a refund of the money under Section 73 (2). But who will give such a direction to refund? Should it be the SEBI?"

The SEBI counsel replied that Section 55 A of the Companies Act will have the answer as to who can issue such a direction.

Sodhi then observed that consequence could be that Sahara's public issue will go out of listing and 66 lakh investors will not be able to trade their securities.

Arguing that Section 73 (1) of the Companies Act ought to be read in consonance with Section 55 A Clause B, which deals with intention of the company, Datar said under Section 245 AA of the Companies Act, securities include "hybrid" financial instruments. According to Section 55 A, the word 'securities' also includes future financial instruments which are yet to evolve, Datar added.

To this, Sodhi asked Datar what is the consequence of calling OFCD a security, and pointed out that Sahara had submitted to the Allahabad High Court that SEBI could not regulate it because the instrument was a "hybrid" and that under the Securities Contract Regulation Act, an OFCD is not a
security.

SAT will resume hearing next Monday. Incidentally, the Supreme Court's deadline for the case is October 5.

The SAT has directed Sahara to file an affidavit by Monday, specifying from which date it began mobilising funds from investors. Further, it also asked the appellant to specify the total amount of funds mobilised till date, the number of investors involved, as well as the mode of fund mobilisation.

Source: www.moneycontrol.com

Thanks,
Gaurav Agarwal
Head Dealer
DENIP Consultants Pvt Ltd

IFCI TIER II SUBORDINATE BONDS - SERIES III -- TERMSHEET

Please find below the Term Sheet of the “IFCI Tier II Subordinate Bonds – Series III”.

Issue Opens :- 5th September’2011.

Issue Closes :- 10th October ‘2011.




The specific terms of available Options under this Tier II Subordinate Bonds Series III Issue are set below:




Thanks,
Gaurav Agarwal
Head Dealer
DENIP Consultants Pvt Ltd

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Recession / Great Depression and Opportunites to Invest - Dewang K Mehta


 The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression in the decade preceding World War II. The timing of the Great Depression varied across nations, but in most countries it started in about 1929 and lasted until the late 1930s or early 1940s. It was the longest, most widespread, and deepest depression of the 20th century. In the 21st century, the Great Depression is commonly used as an example of how far the world's economy can decline. The depression originated in the U.S., starting with the fall in stock prices that began around September 4, 1929 and became worldwide news with the stock market crash of October 29, 1929 (known as Black Tuesday). From there, it quickly spread to almost every country in the world.

The Stock Market Crash in the US however was just the beginning. Since many banks had also invested large portions of their clients' savings in the stock market, these banks were forced to close when the stock market crashed. Seeing a few banks close caused another panic across the country. Afraid they would lose their own savings, people rushed to banks that were still open to withdraw their money. This massive withdrawal of cash caused additional banks to close. Since there was no way for a bank's clients to recover any of their savings once the bank had closed, those who didn't reach the bank in time also became bankrupt.
Businesses and industry were also affected. Having lost much of their own capital in either the Stock Market Crash or the bank closures, many businesses started cutting back their workers' hours or wages. In turn, consumers began to curb their spending, refraining from purchasing such things as luxury goods. This lack of consumer spending caused additional businesses to cut back wages or, more drastically, to lay off some of their workers. Some businesses couldn't stay open even with these cuts and soon closed their doors, leaving all their workers unemployed.

The Great Depression had devastating effects in virtually every country, rich and poor. Personal income, tax revenue, profits and prices dropped, while international trade plunged by more than 50%. Unemployment in the U.S. rose to 25% and in some countries rose as high as 33%. Cities all around the world were hit hard, especially those dependent on heavy industry. Construction was virtually halted in many countries. Farming and rural areas suffered as crop prices fell by approximately 60%. Facing plummeting demand with few alternate sources of jobs, areas dependent on primary sector industries such as cash cropping, mining and logging suffered the most. Some economies started to recover by the mid-1930s. However, in many countries the negative effects of the Great Depression lasted until the start of World War II.

The Great Depression of 1929 had a very severe impact on India, which was then under the rule of the British Raj. The Government of British India adopted a protective trade policy which, though beneficial to the United Kingdom, caused great damage to the Indian economy. During the period 1929–1937, exports and imports fell drastically crippling seaborne international trade. The railways and the agricultural sector were the most affected.

The international financial crisis combined with detrimental policies adopted by the Government of India resulted in the soaring prices of commodities. High prices along with the stringent taxes prevalent in British India had a dreadful impact on the common man. The discontent of farmers manifested itself in rebellions and riots. The Salt Satyagraha of 1930 was one of the measures undertaken as a response to heavy taxation during the Great Depression.
The Great Depression and the economic policies of the Government of British India worsened the already deteriorating Indo-British relations. When the first general elections were held according to the Government of India Act 1935, anti-British feelings resulted in the Indian National Congress winning in most provinces with a very high percentage of the vote share.


The Concept of Gold Standard
The gold standard is a monetary system in which the standard economic unit of account is a fixed mass of gold. There are distinct kinds of gold standard. First, the gold specie standard is a system in which the monetary unit is associated with circulating gold coins, or with the unit of value defined in terms of one particular circulating gold coin in conjunction with subsidiary coinage made from a lesser valuable metal.
Similarly, the gold exchange standard typically involves the circulation of only coins made of silver or other metals, but where the authorities guarantee a fixed exchange rate with another country that is on the gold standard. This creates a de facto gold standard, in that the value of the silver coins has a fixed external value in terms of gold that is independent of the inherent silver value. Finally, the gold bullion standard is a system in which gold coins do not circulate, but in which the authorities have agreed to sell gold bullion on demand at a fixed price in exchange for the circulating currency.

At the onset of the First World War, the cost of gold was very low and therefore the pound sterling had high value. But during the First World War, the value of the pound fell alarmingly due to rising war expenses. At the conclusion of the war, the value of the pound was only a fraction of what it used to be prior to the commencement of the war. It remained low until 1925, when the then Chancellor of the Exchequer (Finance Minister) of United Kingdom, Winston Churchill, restored it to pre-War levels. As a result, the price of gold fell rapidly. While the rest of Europe purchased large quantities of gold from the United Kingdom, there was little increase in the financial reserves. This dealt a blow to an already deteriorating economy. The United Kingdom began to look to its possessions as India to compensate for the gold that was sold.


What Did Smart Money Do In the 1929 Crash and Aftermath?
During the same bear market period smart-money moved from the plunging equity markets (i.e. financial assets) to hard asset investments, like Homestake Mining - which is used heretofore as a surrogate for all gold stocks.

The stock price of this gold mining company soared relentlessly upward during the entire bear market. Homestake Mining stock rose continuously from $80 in October 1929 to $495 per share in December 1935 - which represents a total return of 519% (excluding cash dividends) during the devastating bear market period.

Contemplate and appreciate the monumental difference in investment returns during a serious bear market. Smart-money invested $10,000 in Homestake Mining (hard assets) in late 1929 - which increased in value to almost $62,000 by December 1935. This represents a compound rate of return of 35% per year in appreciation alone!

It is meaningful to note that in late 1929 the value of Homestake Mining was about $80 per share. Moreover, during the next six years Homestake Mining paid out a total of $128 in cash dividends. In fact the 1935 dividend alone reached $56 per share. That's almost a 70% dividend yield payout (basis 1929) in only one year! Indeed, hard asset investments (gold mining shares) were islands of economic refuge during the grueling years of the Great Depression.

Unfortunately, those innocent souls who remained invested in stocks - and had a buy and hold strategy - saw their initial $10,000 investment slowly dwindle to only $3,600 by late 1935. This represented a devastating capital loss of almost two-thirds of their investment savings. The hapless naive investor with a buy and hold strategy in financial assets lost the greater part of his original stake. Pathetically, he could ill-afford to risk - let alone lose - his precious capital during the many long despairing years of the Great Depression.

One does not have to be a Ph.D. in higher mathematics to understand the 1929-1935 comparative investment results stated below.
Investment
Vehicle
Investment
Date
Amount
Investment
Value @ Dec. 1935
DJIA
Oct - 1929
$10,000
$3,600
DJUA
Oct - 1929
$10,000
$2,100
Homestake Mining
Oct - 1929
$10,000
$62,000

Note: For simplification cash dividends not taken into account




What should an Ideal MF Portfolio look like over the next 2 years?
MF Scheme Name
Scheme Type
Investment Logic
Minimum Amount
% Allocation
DSP BR Top 100 Equity Reg – SIP (Growth)
Large Cap Fund
Safe bet in the Indian equities because of investments in blue chip companies
500 /-
10%
HDFC Top 200 Fund  - SIP(Growth)
Large Cap Fund
Safe bet in the Indian equities because of investments in blue chip companies
1,000 /-
20%
HDFC Prudence Fund – SIP
Balanced Fund
Balances the portfolio due to debt and large cap equity exposure
1,000 /-
20%
Birla Sunlife Dividend Yield Plus – SIP
Mid, Small & Micro Cap Fund
Risky bet but decent opportunity to accumulate midcap/small cap stocks at lower levels
1,000 /-
20%
DSP World Gold Fund – SIP
Gold Miners fund
Hedge to direct gold investments since if the US equities stabilize and gold falls a bit from here these companies will still earn higher margins
500 /-
10%
Kotak Gold Fund – SIP
Gold Fund
Direct gold investments as a total hedge to your equity investments
1,000 /-
20%
Total
Rs. 5,000 /-
100%


Thanks,
Dewang K. Mehta
DENIP Consultants Pvt. Ltd.
Disclaimer Post Applies

ONGC - FPO Details

ONGC - FPO Details

BRLM: JM Financial Consultants,Citigroup Global Markets,BOA Merrill,HSBC Securities,
Morgan Stanley, Nomura Financial.

Syndicate Member: JM Financial Services , HDFC Securities,

Issue Period: September 20 to September 23, 2011

QIB Bid Closes: September 22, 2011

Retail/HNI/Employee Bid Closes: September 23, 2011

Issue Size: 42,77,00,000 Equity Shares

Employee Reservation: 8,553,168 Equity Shares

Net Issue: 41,92,21,336 Equity Shares


Face Value: Rs.5/- per Equity Share

Price Band: Will be announced one working day prior to the issue opens

Lot Size: Will be announced one working day prior to the issue opens

Retail/Employee Discount: Will be announced one working day prior to the issue opens
Listing NSE/BSE

Registrar: Linkintime India Private Limited

QIB Book: 20,96,10,668 (50% of Net issue size)

HNI Book: 6,28,83,200 (15% of Net issue size)

Retail Book: 14,67,27,468 (35% of Net issue size)

Thanks,
Gaurav Agarwal,
Head Dealer
DENIP Consultants Pvt Ltd

Monday, September 5, 2011

Trend in Global Market during the Week 29th Aug 2011 to 2nd Sept 2011

Trend in Global Market during the Week 29th Aug 2011 to 2nd Sept 2011

DOW JONES:

-0.40%

FTSE:

3.20%

DAX:

0.10%

CAC:

2%

BOVESPA:

6%

SINGAPORE:

3.50%

NIKKEI:

1.70%

HANG SENG:

3.20%

SHANGHAI:

-2.30%

SENSEX:

6.10%


Thanks,

Gaurav Agarwal

Head Dealer

DENIP Consultants Pvt Ltd