Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Happy Diwali and a Prosperous New Year

Dear All,

Here's wishing everyone a Very Happy Diwali and a Prosperous New Year!! May this Diwali bless with you with all the happiness in the world.

This last year has not been too kind for investors in the stock market but Gold and Fixed deposits along with FMPs has worked out just well. For the coming year following are some of the interesting bets:

1) Commodities to watch:

      a) Silver - Any downward movement in the equity market will directly lead Silver higher and I still believe that above 55K - 56K will take it to 65K - 70K which is a 25% - 30% rally.

      b) Gold - Best tool to fight against inflation and Equity market under-performance. I believe that at 26K - 27K Gold is still a buy but any rally to 32K - 35K should be used to book out profits in it. Again another 30% upside.

      c) Copper - If the equity markets do perform well this will be the commodity to watch out for. I believe that with a 2 year perspective investors should  slowly start accumulating this commodity.

      d) Sugar - This is a rather short term trading bet and I believe that It could soon see a 20% rally at the very least.

2) MF Investments:

I believe that all investors should get a SIP going with a 2 year perspective to earn an average of 20% - 30% rally. Following are the schemes that one can look at / diversify into:

      a) HDFC TOP 200
      b) HDFC Prudence
      c) DSP Top 100 Equity
      d) DSP World Gold Fund
      e) BSL Dividend Yield Plus
      f) BSL Tax Relief 96
      g) Reliance MIP
      h) Kotak Gold Fund

This portfolio should even be considered for any investors looking to invest over the next 20 years too.

3) Equity Market Investments:

I believe that this route of investments has under-performed since the past 1 year and will continue to do so over the next 2 quarters. However investors looking to put in money with a 2 year perspective could look at the following sectors / stocks:

      a) Cement Sector (ACC, Ambuja Cement, Ultratech Cement etc.)
      b) Auto Sector ( M&M, Tata Motors)
      c) Banking Sector (SBI, Yes Bank, ICICI Bank)
      d) Pharmaceutical Sector (Dr. Reddy, Lupin, Fortis, Cipla)
      e) Delta Corp
      f) Bajaj Financial Services

4) Real Estate Investments:

This could be one of the trickiest investments to make right now. I personally believe that this a sector one should avoid for any investments at least till the next few quarters. This sector could see a major dip in prices if sales drop.

5) Fixed Income Investments:

Over the next 3 quarters investors should look to exit from FMP / FDs and start moving to balanced funds / monthly income plans. Then look to shift to direct equity investments. One could even look at investing in to GILT Funds.

Once again wish you a very Happy Diwali and a prosperous new year!

Thanks,
Dewang K Mehta

DENIP Consultants

No comments:

Post a Comment