Monday, November 28, 2011
Net FII Purchases & Sales During the Week 21st Nov 2011 to 25th Nov 2011
FII sales during the week:
21/11.2011: -755.5
22/11/2011: -601.1
23/11/2011: -862.2
24/11/2011: -1070.7
25/11/2011: -1106.4
FII were net seller of Rs 4395.60 crore during the week.
Thanks,
Gaurav Agarwal
Head Dealer
DENIP Consultants Pvt Ltd
Sectoral Performance During Week 21st Nov 2011 to 25th Nov 2011
MAJOR SECTORAL GAINERS:
PHARMA: 0.40%
MAJOR SECTORAL LOSERS:
CAPITAL GOODS: -0.70%
PSU: -3.10%
AUTO: -3.20%
REALTY: -3.30%
CONSUMER DURABLE: -9.60%
POWER: -12.90%
MAJOR GAINERS IN NIFTY:
L&T: 3.45%
BHEL: 3.20%
BPCL: 3.15%
MAJOR LOSERS IN NIFTY:
MARUTI: -4%
HINDALCO: -3.90%
R-POWER: -3.50%
Trend in Global Market during the Week 21st Nov 2011 to 25th Nov 2011
DOW JONES: -4.80%
FTSE: -3.70%
CAC: -4.70%
DAX: -5.30%
BOVESPA: -3.20%
SINGAPORE: -3.20%
NIKKEI: -2.60%
HANG SENG: -4.30%
SHANGHAI: -0.80%
SENSEX: -4.10%
Thanks,
Gaurav Agarwal
Head Dealer
DENIP Consultants Pvt Ltd
Important US Economic Data Releases for the Week 28th Nov 2011 to 2nd Dec 2011
Monday
New Home Sales
Consumer Confidence
FHFA House Price Index
State Street Investors Confidence Index
ADP Employment Reports
Productivity Costs
Chicago PMI
Pending Home Sales Index
EIA Petroleum Status Report
Beige Book
Farm Prices
Chain Store Sales
Motor Vehicle Sales
Jobless Claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
ISM Manufacture Index
Construction Index
Employment Situation
Source: www.sharetipsinfo.com
Thanks,
Gaurav Agarwal
Head Dealer
DENIP Consultants Pvt Ltd
Beginning of New Reforms in India.
The opening up of the Indian retail sector to the world players by allowing 100% foreign direct investment (FDI) in single-brand retail and 51% in multi-brand is a sign of more forced reforms to come.
The issue of FDI in retail is a long pending one and the government did not act on it earlier due to political compulsions when it was supported by the Left and due to more urgent issues stemming from the credit crisis in 2008 and scams in 2011. On a long-term basis, the opening up of FDI in retail is positive for both inflation and the rupee as global retailers look to set up shop in India.
The government was forced to take the decision of opening up the retail sector due to one ,the rupee depreciating 15% against the US dollar and secondly, inflation staying at over 9% levels for six consecutive months. Even opposition from a key ally in West Bengal did not deter the government when it announced the higher FDI in retail. Money will not rush into India on the back of the announcement, but it is a positive reform measure under forced circumstances.
FDI in the airline sector:
The government is also considering allowing FDI in the airline sector, which faces headwinds due to structural issues in aviation in India and the near-bankruptcy of two large carriers — Air India and Kingfisher Airlines.
FDI in the airlines sector has been an issue for many years with the government even blocking a proposed joint venture between the Tata group and Singapore Airlines.
The FDI proposal for the airline industry is again a forced policy measure as a healthy airline industry is crucial for the infrastructure of the country and if three of the largest airlines (Jet, Air India and Kingfisher) are in the red, it does not bode well for aviation in India.
Increase in FII Limits in Bonds:
In related currency developments, the government increased the foreign institutional investor (FII) limit for government bonds and for corporate bonds by $5 billion each, taking up total FII limits to $15 billion for government bonds and $20 billion for corporate bonds. The previous limits were almost fully utilised and there was more demand from FIIs for investment in Indian debt, despite a weakening currency. The limits will get filled up gradually but will, all the same and this is positive for the rupee.
Reforms in Oil and Power Sectors:
The government needs to address two sectors that are in dire straits — oil and power. The government is not allowing the pass-through of higher costs to the end user and this is creating deep holes in its pockets as it has to ultimately bear the burden of the subsidies. Indian oil marketing companies have lost almost `65,000 crore in the first half of this fiscal for selling fuel below cost.
The power sector is in deep trouble with state electricity boards (SEBs) suffering losses, as they are not allowed to sell electricity at cost to the end user. The SEB losses are estimated at around Rs100,000 crore as of October 2011.
Power producers are reluctant to sell power to SEBs as they do not get paid. As a result, even if power is available in plenty, there is an artificial shortage of power as SEBs are not able to source power at cheaper rates.
The end result of subsidies is the government’s fiscal deficit going higher than projection leading to rise in borrowing costs. The government’s fiscal deficit for 2011-12 is expected to exceed budget estimates of 4.6% by 1%. Bond yields have risen by 60 basis points on the back of higher-than-expected fiscal deficit.
Source: DNA India.
Thanks,
Gaurav Agarwal
Head Dealer
DENIP Consultants Pvt Ltd
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Weekly Wrap: Govt reforms fail to perk up market mood
A lifetime low on the rupee, the spillover effect of the eurozone crisis and poor internal fundamentals ensured that the week was packed with volatility. Bad news for the market continued, causing Indian equities to tank around 4% despite several short covering rallies before the expiry of the November series.
Despite crossing the crucial 4700 level, the Nifty managed to recoup losses to close just above that, down 196 points. The Sensex fell below 16,000 and stayed there to close at 15,695.43, down more than 750 points. All in all, a disastrous week for equities.
Market Movers:
Dashing all talks of a policy paralysis, the Cabinet cleared the bill to increase foreign direct investment to 51% in multi-brand retail and 100% in single brand yesterday, bringing joy to the Indian retail sector. Even though the Bill was cleared with certain riders, industry experts and analysts believe this move will help generate employment in the country, increase manufacturing and help farmers.
Another move that was passed by the Cabinet was the Companies Bill 2011, which aims to introduce mandatory corporate social responsibility (CSR), class action suits and a fixed term for independent directors, among other things. Corporate Affairs Minister, Veerappa Moily, today said he hoped the Bill would get passed this Parliament session.
On the flip side, the depreciating rupee has had a very adverse effect on the economy. After touching its lifetime high of 52.73 per dollar on Tuesday, central bank intervention at 52.55 per dollar levels has helped appreciate the dollar a little. However, the Indian currency is still the worst performing Asian currency, having depreciated over 17% since July 2011.
Some good news came in for Air India late yesterday as the RBI gave a nod to restructuring the beleaguered airline’s debt on the conditions that the restructuring be done within 120 days after getting the sanction of all banks involved. The RBI has also said that the repayment period for the loans should be extended to 15 years from the current 10 years.
State electricity regulators can also heave a sigh of relief as they are now allowed to set tariff rates on their own without filing for an average revenue requirement (ARR) petition first. This move will benefit all power companies, mainly the state electricity boards that are currently suffering huge losses.
Reliance Industries ’ aim to enter the insurance sector takes another hit as its plans to buy majority stake in two Bharti Axa insurance ventures gets mutually terminated due to difference over long term vision and joint management in the future.
Losers & Gainers:
Amtek Auto (Rs 121.30; +28%): Possibility of buyback plans being approved by the market regulator SEBI boosted the stock price of the company.
Pantaloon Retail (Rs 234.05; +19%): News that the company is in talks with foreign players to benefit from the opening up of India’s retail sector saw the company’s share jump in today’s trade.
Parsvnath Developers (Rs 34.10;-41%): Bad times for the company continues as pledged promoters shares continue to get liquidated in the market, beating down the share price.
DB Realty (Rs 68.15;+15%): Even though owner Shahid Balwa has not received bail yet, news of the other five corporates accused in the 2G scam getting released on bail boosted the stock.
Source: www.moneycontrol.com
Thanks,
Gaurav Agarwal
Head Dealer
DENIP Consultants Pvt Ltd
Rule of '9-9-9' to make you rich
US Presidential nominate, Herman Cain, had come up with a program titled '9-9-9' aimed at reforming the US tax system. The program was proposed to help the US economy out of its financial troubles. In essence, it proposed to have a 9% income tax, 9% business transaction tax and a 9% federal sales tax. Hence the connotation 9-9-9.
Whether the program gets approved or not, the connotation can actually be used in another way. As proposed by Forbes magazine, the rule of 9-9-9 can be used by people like us to increase our wealth. True, it is written keeping the people of America in mind, but we feel that if tweaked a bit, it is something that each of us can adopt in our lives.
How does it work?
Well it works in 3 steps. It helps to reduce your personal debt burden, reduces spending and increasing your saving. In short, it is the recipe of becoming richer.
Let's take a look at the 3 steps involved.
Step 1: Pay off all debts that have an interest rate of 9% or more.
You may read this and go "Ha! With the increasing interest rates ALL the debts would fall in this category". Well that is actually true. So we are going to tweak this rule a bit. Pay off all debt that has an interest rate higher than what you can earn by investing in a relatively risk-free investment. We are referring to the returns on the investment which is what you earn by holding on to the investment over a period of time.
The way this works is that suppose a relatively risk free investment gives you 12% returns (note we are talking of returns not the face value interest rate). And you have a loan on which you pay 11% interest. So it would be better for you to invest your money in the investment and use the interest income received to pay off the interest on the loan. Any loan that has a higher interest rate deserves to be paid back. Otherwise the interest liability just keeps on growing and your debt burden goes up over time (using compounding power of money ).
So once you have identified the loans that need to be paid off first, the next question is how much money should you put aside to pay off such loans? This is where steps 2 and 3 come in.
Step 2: Have at least 9 months of necessary expenses in savings
Everyone has their monthly expenses. This includes basics like food, travel, clothing, housing, etc. Excluding expenses on luxury, it would be a good idea to work out how much you need each month. At any point of time, it is necessary to put at least 9 months of necessary expenses in savings. These should ideally be completely risk free and easy to get. A savings bank account or a fixed deposit are usually good places to park these savings.
But here one may ask, with expenses going up almost daily, how does one set aside this huge quantum of savings?
Well the idea is no different from what economists and experts prescribe for the countries. You have to adopt austerity measures. Prioritize your expenses and cut back on anything and everything that you may regard as unnecessary and wasteful. True it would mean that you like in a frugal manner for sometime but at the end if you are able to build up more funds, then the whole process is totally worth it. Initially it may seem difficult but saving at least 2 -3 months of expenses is doable to start with. As you move higher in life and continue following these rules in a disciplined manner, even the 9 months' savings become achievable.
Step 3: Save 9% of your income each year for retirement
So once you are done with saving up to meet your expenses, you should be saving at least 9% of your total annual income for retirement. Again, this looks like a low savings rate for us Indians. But this is the bare minimum that one should try to achieve. These funds should ideally be parked in long term investment options depending on your risk taking appetite. And these should be kept for a long period of time. Imagine the kind of funds you would have at the end of 10 years or 15 or even 20. The power of compounding comes in and the funds multiply over the time period.
The balance that is left over is used to pay off your debt burden, which you have sorted out on the basis of the interest rates.
Following these steps may seem difficult. But followed diligently and with discipline, it does become possible. And with these steps, you would soon be debt free and have sustained savings. This in turn can compound over time leading to larger wealth for you.
Source: www.moneycontrol.com
Thanks,
Gaurav Agarwal
Head Dealer
DENIP Consultants Pvt Ltd